There are growing fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia after an offensive by fighters from Tigray into neighboring states of Afar and Amhara and the formation of a new rebel alliance aimed at overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
About 600,000 people died between 2020 and 2022 during a devastating war between the Ethiopian army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). On Sunday, seven armed groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aimed at deposing the government in Addis Ababa.
On Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports from federal police. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to the region “due to the current situation.” The TPLF also launched attacks into Afar and Amhara.
“We are in the situation of full-blown war now,” said TPLF vice-president Amanuel Assefa. Flights to the historic Ethiopian town of Lalibela were suspended on Thursday due to nearby fighting, while people in Tigray stocked up on food and cash.
In its first public comments, Ethiopia’s army said it had foiled the attacks and killed, wounded or captured more than 500 enemy fighters. Analysts say the TPLF has support from Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia.
Key Developments
- TPLF launches offensive into Afar and Amhara states
- Seven armed groups form alliance to overthrow Abiy Ahmed’s government
- TPLF seizes three airports from federal police
- Ethiopian Airlines suspends regional flights
- Ethiopian army claims 500+ enemy fighters killed/captured
- Fears of return to 2020-2022 civil war conditions
Implications
- Potential for renewed devastating civil war in East Africa
- Regional stability threatened by expanded conflict
- Humanitarian crisis possible as civilians face siege conditions
- International community likely to monitor closely
Featured image: Simien Mountains, Ethiopia. Photo A. Davey, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons – illustrative.
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